UPDATE: New England is gearing up for a potentially frigid winter as meteorologists unveil a promising forecast for the 2025-26 season. Just announced by seasonal forecaster Dan Leonard of The Weather Company, early December could usher in a colder-than-average start, bringing much-needed relief after several lackluster winters.
Why it matters: After three consecutive years of below-average snowfall in Boston—where the city needed the last three years combined just to match one typical winter—the stakes are high. Worcester has also experienced four years of disappointing snowfall, raising hopes for a significant turnaround this season.
Meteorologists are closely monitoring key climate patterns that could influence winter conditions. Currently, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is in a La Niña phase, which traditionally favors colder weather across northern regions of the U.S. However, New England often finds itself in a challenging middle ground. Leonard notes, “Occasionally La Niña brings a lot of cold and a lot of snow. But sometimes warmth from the Southeast bubbles up, giving the Northeast very warm winters.”
The potential for storms is high, but the type of precipitation—rain or snow—depends on temperature fluctuations. Adding complexity to the forecast is the Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO), now in its negative phase, which can bring milder air into the Northeast. “Warm waters in the Western Atlantic are more fuel for storms,” Leonard states, emphasizing the critical role that temperature plays.
The polar vortex, which can either trap cold air in the Arctic or allow it to plunge south, is also a significant factor this winter. Leonard explains, “During La Niña years, you can get these polar vortex disruption events,” which could lead to sudden Arctic air outbreaks. If these cold snaps coincide with strong coastal storms, New England could experience substantial snowfall.
Additionally, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) could be a game-changer. In its negative phase, it can funnel cold air southward, paving the way for nor’easters. “When you see high pressure building over Greenland or northern Canada, that’s when you think: big cold and snow could be on the way,” Leonard warns. However, this pattern can be unpredictable, making precise forecasting challenging.
While Boston’s winters have warmed by an average of 2 degrees since 1970, snowfall has not diminished entirely. In fact, the average snowfall has increased by 1.8 inches during the same period. Leonard emphasizes the variability of winter weather, stating, “Expect a lot of variability.”
New Englanders should prepare for all possibilities this winter. With La Niña driving storm chances and atmospheric conditions that could bring cold air, this season may offer an active and unpredictable weather pattern.
As the winter approaches, stay tuned for updates, as timing will be critical. It’s a winter where even an average snowfall—around 48 inches for Boston—could feel monumental after several quiet seasons. Expect changes, and be ready for whatever Mother Nature has in store.