URGENT UPDATE: As the holiday season approaches, wine prices are surging due to steep tariffs and declining demand, making it more difficult for shoppers to find their favorite bottles. Local wine shops, including McCabes Wine & Spirits in Manhattan, report price increases between 5% to 12% this year, as owners strive to balance higher costs with customer affordability.
The 15% tariff on European Union imports imposed by the previous administration is significantly impacting importers, leading to a 13% decline in wine sales year over year, according to Elenteny Imports. With bottled wine prices rising nearly 20% over the past 25 years, the situation is exacerbated by factors like inflation and climate change.
Owner Daniel Mesznik explains, “It’s the reality of the tariffs, shipping, manufacturing, and labor.” As consumer preferences shift away from wine to more affordable options, such as spirits and canned cocktails, the wine market faces an uphill battle.
Data from the IWSR indicates that wine consumption in the United States has dropped 3% between 2019 and 2024 and is projected to decline another 4% from 2024 to 2029. “For casual drinking occasions, wine has often been the choice for drinkers who prefer not to drink beer. But wine can be expensive,” said IWSR President Marten Lodewijks.
In light of these challenges, Mesznik’s shop has shifted focus to tequila, a category exempt from tariffs. He has increased tequila offerings by 40%, moving these products to the front to attract customers. “Tequila is in the most beautiful bottles. It’s the category in my business that everyone gravitates to right now,” Mesznik noted.
The outlook for 2025 is grim, with Elenteny reporting a 30% decrease in year-to-date bookings for imported wines. This decline is partly due to the end of the “post-pandemic frothiness” in the market. Elenteny CEO Alexi Cashen emphasized that tariffs remain a “persecutory issue” for the industry.
As retailers streamline wine offerings, shoppers may find limited selections at their local stores. Mike Veseth, the Wine Economist, pointed out the impact of the upcoming Supreme Court decision on tariffs, which could further discourage investment in the wine sector.
Mid-priced wines, particularly those priced between $40 to $50, are struggling the most, while low-end and premium wines continue to perform well. “We’ve seen wine volumes consistently decline year after year,” Lodewijks added.
In response to the changing market, Mesznik is adapting his purchasing strategy, ordering smarter by consolidating purchases from fewer wholesalers for better deals. “I may normally buy 1 or 3 cases, but I’m ordering 5 and 10 cases now,” he said.
This holiday season, consumers may face challenges finding their preferred wines, with steep tariffs driving up prices and limiting selections. As the wine industry navigates these turbulent waters, the impact will be felt at checkout counters across the nation.