UPDATE: A new report from accounting firm PwC reveals alarming projections for the film industry: U.S. and global box office revenues will not recover to pre-COVID-19 levels until at least 2030. This urgent news comes as the industry grapples with significant challenges and changing viewing habits.
According to PwC’s latest media and entertainment outlook report, released late on July 23, 2023, total U.S. cinema revenue is projected to rise steadily from $8.9 billion in 2024 to $10.8 billion by 2029, but will fall short of the $11.7 billion recorded in 2019. Bart Spiegel, PwC’s global entertainment and media leader, emphasizes, “Unfortunately, this full recovery is unlikely within the forecast period. However, we project that by the end of 2029, the industry will be on the brink of a full rebound.”
The report highlights a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.9 percent for U.S. box office revenue through 2029. Even with this growth, total admissions are expected to remain below pre-pandemic levels, with projections of 734 million in 2024 and 823 million by 2029, compared to 1.3 billion in 2019.
The global box office is also set for a slow recovery, with revenue expected to increase from $29.7 billion in 2024 to $37.7 billion by 2029. This figure still lags behind the $39.4 billion achieved in 2019. “While ticket prices are rising, admissions are not expected to return to pre-pandemic levels,” Spiegel notes, indicating that higher ticket prices are the primary driver of revenue growth.
The report also addresses the impact of the Writers Guild of America (WGA) and Screen Actors Guild strikes, which have disrupted production and contributed to fewer blockbuster titles than anticipated. The ongoing strikes have resulted in significant delays, further complicating the industry’s recovery efforts.
In a positive light, the report notes that franchise films and tentpole releases are driving box office success this year, with studios like Disney dominating the market. Major hits include Inside Out 2, Deadpool & Wolverine, and Moana 2. PwC forecasts that 2025 will see a robust year with over 110 films released in more than 2,000 locations in North America.
The report emphasizes the importance of the theatrical experience, particularly among younger audiences. Research indicates that seeing a movie during opening weekend is a top activity for those aged 10-24, countering fears of declining cinema attendance among this demographic.
As the landscape continues to evolve, cinema operators are adapting by enhancing amenities and offering loyalty programs to attract more customers. PwC reports a significant rise in loyalty club memberships, up to 119 million in 2024 from 106 million in 2023.
Looking ahead, industry experts will be closely monitoring the continued growth in ticket prices and the introduction of new cinematic technologies, including the use of IMAX and large-format screens. The commitment to a 45-day theatrical window for major releases by streamers like Amazon and Apple marks a crucial shift in strategy.
In conclusion, the film industry faces a challenging road to recovery, with full pre-pandemic box office levels unlikely until 2030. As audiences adapt to new viewing habits and studios navigate ongoing disruptions, the urgency for a strategic approach to revitalization has never been more critical.