UPDATE: New reports indicate that the U.S. could see a staggering over 500,000 people leave the country in 2025, driven by President Donald Trump’s controversial immigration policies. Experts warn that this mass exodus may severely impact the U.S. economy, risking a significant downturn in the labor force and consumer spending.
According to a recently published paper by the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), net migration could range as low as -525,000 to 115,000 this year. This represents a dramatic shift from previous years, with net migration peaking at nearly 1.3 million in 2024. If the lower estimates hold true, it would mark the first instance of negative net migration in decades, raising alarming questions about the future of the U.S. workforce and economy.
The report highlights that foreign-born workers make up a significant 19.2 percent of the American labor force, as detailed by the Department of Labor. A decline in this demographic could push GDP down by as much as 0.4 percent this year, echoing findings from a recent Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas paper that predicts a GDP hit between 0.75 percent and 1.0 percent due to reduced immigration.
Madeline Zavodny, a co-author of the Dallas Fed paper, emphasized the critical role immigrants play in various sectors, stating,
“The drop in migrant inflows will have adverse effects on growth in the U.S. labor force, which will spill over into almost every sector of the economy.”
As the U.S. grapples with a low birth rate and an aging population, reliance on new immigrants becomes increasingly vital for economic vitality.
In response to these concerns, White House spokeswoman Abigail Jackson stated,
“President Trump’s agenda to deport criminal illegal aliens will improve Americans’ quality of life across the board.”
However, critics argue that this approach may further strain labor-intensive sectors like agriculture, construction, and hospitality, where American workers are less likely to fill the void left by departing immigrants.
Giovanni Peri, a labor economist at the University of California, Davis, warned that the impact of declining migrant inflows will be most noticeable in lower-skilled jobs. With fewer available workers, prices in these sectors are likely to surge, causing inflation and economic instability. Meanwhile, smaller businesses may struggle more than larger firms to keep up with rising costs and decreasing productivity.
The American Immigration Council estimates that the foreign-born population possesses about $1.7 trillion in spending power, with undocumented immigrants contributing $299 billion of that amount. A decrease in immigration could lead to reduced consumer spending, further threatening business revenues and increasing the likelihood of layoffs.
Despite the potential fallout, Trump remains steadfast in his immigration policies, as evidenced by his recent signing of a GOP reconciliation bill that allocates approximately $150 billion to enforce stricter immigration measures. Stan Veuger, a senior fellow at AEI, expressed skepticism about whether economic pressures will compel a change in the administration’s stance, saying,
“I think the people driving immigration policy in the White House do not care about the economic [or humanitarian] impact of their immigration policies.”
As this situation develops, experts and citizens alike are urged to stay informed and prepared for the potential ramifications of this unprecedented shift in immigration trends. The urgency of the matter cannot be overstated: economic stability hangs in the balance as the U.S. faces an uncertain future.