The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has long been a key player in Middle Eastern geopolitics, leveraging its wealth and strategic location to influence regional outcomes. However, its recent foreign policy maneuvers in Syria and Sudan have not gone as planned, resulting in significant diplomatic fallout. The UAE’s backing of Bashar al-Assad in Syria and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan has not only damaged its international reputation but also strained relations with allies, including the United States.
In Syria, the UAE’s efforts to normalize relations with Assad’s regime have been thwarted by the unexpected fall of his government. Meanwhile, in Sudan, the UAE’s support for the RSF has embroiled it in a conflict marked by severe human rights abuses. These developments have left Abu Dhabi’s foreign policy in disarray and exposed it to international criticism.
The Syrian Gamble: Normalization Gone Awry
The UAE’s attempt to restore ties with Syria began in earnest in 2018, when it became the first Gulf nation to reopen its embassy in Damascus since the outbreak of the civil war. This move was part of a broader strategy to reduce Iranian influence in Syria and curb the flow of Captagon, a highly addictive drug, into the Gulf. However, the strategy backfired spectacularly.
Despite the UAE’s diplomatic overtures, including a high-profile meeting between UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed and Assad in 2021, the Assad regime continued its close ties with Iran and failed to stem the drug trade. The situation deteriorated further when Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) launched a surprise offensive against Assad’s forces, leading to his downfall and leaving the UAE’s investment in ruins.
“We are concerned by reports of this meeting and the signal it sends,” said State Department spokesperson Ned Price, reflecting the Biden administration’s disapproval of the UAE’s engagement with Assad.
Failed Objectives and Unintended Consequences
The UAE’s normalization efforts were driven by two main objectives: offering Assad an alternative to Iranian support and stopping the Captagon trade. However, neither goal was achieved. Captagon continued to flood the UAE, with massive seizures at Abu Dhabi Airport and Jebel Port highlighting the scale of the problem. Moreover, Assad’s regime showed no inclination to distance itself from Tehran, undermining the UAE’s strategic aims.
The fall of Assad’s regime further complicated matters, as the new Islamist government in Syria views the UAE with suspicion. This shift has not only negated years of diplomatic investment but also strained the UAE’s relations with its Gulf allies, who are wary of Abu Dhabi’s unilateral actions.
Sudan: A Misguided Alliance with the RSF
In Sudan, the UAE’s support for the RSF, led by General Mohamed Hamdan “Hemedti” Dagalo, has embroiled it in a brutal civil war. The conflict, which erupted over a leadership dispute between Hemedti and General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, has led to widespread atrocities, including allegations of genocide against the RSF.
The UAE’s backing of the RSF is rooted in its strategic interests, including securing its gold investments and port development projects in Sudan. However, this alliance has drawn international condemnation, particularly from human rights organizations documenting the RSF’s abuses.
Amnesty International’s report, “They Raped All of Us: Sexual Violence Against Women and Girls in Sudan,” highlights the RSF’s systematic use of rape as a weapon of war, further tarnishing the UAE’s global image.
International Repercussions and Strategic Rivalries
The UAE’s involvement in Sudan has not only damaged its reputation but also created friction with the United States and Saudi Arabia. The US has imposed sanctions on UAE-based firms linked to the RSF, while Saudi Arabia has positioned itself as a stabilizing force in the region, contrasting its humanitarian efforts with the UAE’s interventionist approach.
This divergence in foreign policy strategies has strained the UAE’s relations with its Gulf neighbor, as Riyadh seeks to distance itself from Abu Dhabi’s controversial actions. The UAE’s support for the RSF has also undermined US efforts to isolate Russia, as investigations have revealed the use of Wagner mercenaries to transport weapons to the RSF, complicating Washington’s geopolitical objectives.
Conclusion: A Need for Strategic Reassessment
The UAE’s recent foreign policy missteps in Syria and Sudan highlight the risks of interventionist strategies that lack broad regional and international support. As Abu Dhabi grapples with the fallout from its failed gambles, it faces the challenge of repairing its damaged reputation and realigning its foreign policy objectives with those of its allies.
Looking forward, the UAE may need to adopt a more cautious and collaborative approach to regional diplomacy, focusing on building consensus and addressing humanitarian concerns. This shift could help restore its standing on the global stage and ensure that its foreign policy aligns more closely with the interests of its strategic partners.