President Donald Trump is leaving Republicans uncertain about his endorsement in the highly scrutinized Texas GOP Senate primary, where Senator John Cornyn faces off against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. The race has intensified following a recent meeting between Trump, Senate Majority Leader John Thune, and other allies of Cornyn, which focused on the Senate landscape, including the Texas contest. Cornyn has been trailing Paxton in the polls, raising concerns about his campaign’s viability.
The primary took a dramatic turn on Thursday when Paxton’s wife, Angela Paxton, a state senator, filed for divorce. This development follows allegations surrounding Paxton’s behavior during his 2023 impeachment trial, which included claims of extramarital affairs and corruption. An endorsement from Trump could significantly bolster Cornyn’s standing among Republican primary voters, who have increasingly leaned towards more conservative candidates in recent cycles.
“It will affect their perception of where Cornyn stands with President Trump and with the party,” remarked Brendan Steinhauser, Cornyn’s former campaign manager. He emphasized that even marginal changes can have substantial implications in such a competitive environment. Cornyn’s senior adviser, Matt Mackowiak, described a Trump endorsement as potentially “the most powerful endorsement in the modern history of the Republican Party.” Mackowiak noted the strong friendship between Cornyn and Trump, highlighting that Cornyn has voted with the former president 99.2 percent of the time during his tenure.
On Friday, Cornyn joined Trump in Texas’ Hill Country to survey areas affected by recent flooding, further underscoring their connection. Meanwhile, Representative Wesley Hunt has expressed interest in entering the Senate race and is perceived as a stronger candidate for the general election compared to Paxton.
In the wake of Angela Paxton’s divorce filing, Cornyn’s supporters have criticized Paxton’s personal conduct. “What Ken Paxton has put his family through is truly repulsive,” said Joanna Rodriguez, communications director for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which supports Cornyn.
Despite the turmoil surrounding Paxton, recent polling indicates he maintains a significant lead over Cornyn among GOP primary voters. A poll conducted by Republican pollster Robert Blizzard for the Educational Freedom Institute found Paxton ahead at 50 percent compared to Cornyn’s 28 percent. Although Cornyn’s campaign dismissed this poll as irrelevant, another from Texas Southern University showed Paxton leading with 43 percent to Cornyn’s 34 percent, leaving 23 percent undecided.
While Cornyn currently lags in public opinion, he may find advantages in fundraising. As of Friday, he had not disclosed his second-quarter fundraising totals, but he is recognized as one of the Senate’s top fundraisers, having amassed over $415 million throughout his career. In 2024 alone, he raised nearly $33 million to assist Republicans in regaining control of the Senate. His campaign reported a second-quarter haul of $2.5 million, bringing his total cash on hand to $5.7 million. Additionally, the pro-Cornyn PAC, Texans for a Conservative Majority, reported raising $10.9 million in the same quarter.
Paxton, for his part, also demonstrated fundraising ability, announcing a total of $2.9 million raised from April to June. However, political insiders believe that Trump’s endorsement will be more influenced by polling data than fundraising figures. “If you’re going to move the president with anything on numbers, it’s going to be a poll,” stated a Republican strategist.
The evolving political landscape in Texas presents a complex scenario for the Republican Party, especially given that polling indicates Paxton’s weakness could necessitate additional funding to defend the seat in a general election. Recent polling shows Cornyn leading Democratic candidate Colin Allred by four points, while Paxton leads Allred by just two points. Concerns persist that Paxton’s potential shortcomings as a general election candidate could divert resources from other crucial races.
“The sooner Trump makes a decision, the better it will be for Cornyn,” Steinhauser added, indicating the importance of the endorsement for fundraising and voter mobilization. Republicans tend to favor candidates closely aligned with Trump, which could be pivotal in the upcoming primary.
While some are skeptical about the effectiveness of a Trump endorsement in significantly improving Cornyn’s prospects—given the current polling data—others maintain that it could be critical for a candidate facing challenges. “Cornyn is already defined,” noted the strategist. “The battle now for Cornyn is to try to show enough viability and credibility so the president doesn’t cut him loose.”
As the Texas GOP primary approaches, the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s endorsement continues to loom large, potentially shaping the strategies and outcomes for all candidates involved.