President Donald Trump is experiencing a significant decline in his approval ratings, particularly among independent voters. This trend poses a serious risk for the Republican Party as they approach the crucial 2026 midterm elections. According to CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten, the current polling data suggests a formidable challenge for Trump and the GOP.
Recent polling data reveals Trump’s net approval rating has plummeted, with figures ranging from a low of -26 in the Associated Press-NORC poll to a comparatively less dire -14 in the Marquette University Law School survey. Enten remarked, “When your best poll has you still 14 points underwater, you know it’s truly bad.” He further elaborated that a rating of -26 indicates a dire situation, likening the president’s standing to being “well underwater with the deep blue sea swimming with the fishes.”
The decline among independent voters is particularly alarming. Trump began his presidency with a net approval rating just four points underwater among this critical demographic. Now, he finds himself a staggering 43 points underwater with independents, a situation Enten described as disastrous for any hope of maintaining Republican control in Congress.
“If this holds for next year’s midterm election, wave, ‘adios, amigos. Goodbye, see you later’ to that House Republican majority,” Enten warned during his appearance on “CNN News Central” on November 17, 2025. He also expressed concern for the Senate, stating that the Republican majority is “very much in danger as well.”
Enten emphasized the urgent need for Trump to regain support among independents if the Republicans are to have any chance of retaining control in Congress. “Whatever he is doing with independents, it ain’t working,” he said, noting their growing disdain for the president. The current independent approval rating stands at an alarming -34.
As the midterm elections draw closer, the political landscape appears increasingly precarious for Trump and his party. The current polling trends highlight the challenges ahead and underscore the importance of independent voter sentiment in shaping the future of Republican leadership in Congress.