Former President Donald Trump has dismissed Erika McEntarfer, the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), following the release of employment data that did not align with his administration’s economic narrative. This decision, made on July 7, 2023, has sparked significant concern among economists and policymakers about the integrity of labor data in the United States.
The BLS is responsible for providing crucial statistics that inform businesses and government agencies about employment trends and economic health. Reliable data is essential for making informed decisions, and Trump’s actions threaten to undermine nearly a century of credibility that this statistical agency has built. According to Aaron Sojourner, a labor economist at the W. E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, “Credible statistics and agency independence go hand in hand. Attacking independence damages the credibility of the statistics.”
Trump’s move comes at a time when the U.S. economy faces challenges linked to his administration’s tariffs and cuts to social spending. The most recent BLS report revealed revisions to previous employment numbers that painted a less favorable picture for the economy, prompting Trump to label the figures as “RIGGED” via social media.
He stated, “I believe the numbers were phony,” without providing evidence for his claims. Economists across the political spectrum have pointed out that the BLS report was consistent with expected trends, and Stephan Miran, a prominent economist in the White House, acknowledged that the revisions were based on more comprehensive payroll data. Miran described the adjustments as not what anyone wanted to see but attributed them to normal seasonal variations.
The BLS’s revisions to the job numbers for May and June were indeed substantial, yet they were not out of the ordinary for the agency’s historical data. Changes to employment reports are routine and are designed to enhance accuracy as more data becomes available. Trump’s choice to dismiss McEntarfer—a move criticized by Jason Furman, a Harvard economist—has raised alarms about the potential impact on the reliability of future data. Furman remarked that the action is “closer to what one expects from a banana republic than from a major democratic financial center.”
McEntarfer’s role involved overseeing a team of approximately 2,000 professionals dedicated to collecting and analyzing labor market information. Their work is vital to maintaining a clear view of the economy, which helps businesses and policymakers navigate challenges. The BLS has a long-standing reputation for impartiality, and its findings are often regarded as the gold standard for economic data in the U.S.
While Wall Street has not yet reacted strongly to McEntarfer’s termination, analysts caution that this could signal a troubling trend. The decision sends a message to other civil servants that adherence to factual reporting might not be welcomed if it contradicts the administration’s narrative. As one commentator noted, “The message is that you might want that data and those conclusions to be to Trump’s liking, or else.”
In conclusion, Trump’s dismissal of McEntarfer raises significant questions about the future of labor statistics in the United States. As the economy grapples with various challenges, the need for reliable and independent data has never been more critical. Without it, the potential for misguided policy decisions increases, putting the economic stability of the country at risk.