The Trump administration recently announced significant initiatives to address what it describes as an “epidemic” of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) in the United States. Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. stated that federal officials will take an “uncompromising and relentless” approach in their search for answers, including a new safety label for acetaminophen products, such as Tylenol, which suggests a potential link to autism. However, many researchers argue that the scientific evidence supporting this claim is insufficient.
Kennedy has long maintained that the increase in autism diagnoses among U.S. children indicates heightened exposure to external influences, such as drugs, chemicals, toxins, or vaccines. He emphasized this point in April, asserting that the rising prevalence of autism cannot merely be attributed to better diagnostic practices or changing criteria. According to data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC), the rate of autism diagnoses among 8-year-olds has surged from 1 in 150 in 2000 to 1 in 31 in 2022.
Understanding the Rise in Autism Diagnoses
While Kennedy recognizes the increasing rates, experts in the field stress that this trend must be interpreted in light of two crucial factors. First, the diagnostic definition of autism has broadened significantly over the years. Second, the frequency with which autism is diagnosed has increased. Alan Gerber, a pediatric neuropsychologist at Children’s National Hospital in Washington, D.C., explained, “People haven’t changed that much, but how we talk about them, how we describe them, how we categorize them has actually changed a lot over the years.”
The term “autism” first emerged in the scientific community in the mid-20th century when Austrian pediatrician Hans Asperger and U.S. psychiatrist Leo Kanner independently used it to describe distinct behavioral traits in children. The original definitions were limited, but the diagnostic criteria have evolved. By the 1980s, autism was formally recognized in the third edition of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM) as a condition characterized by impaired communication and social interaction.
Over time, the DSM has expanded the definition of autism. The fourth edition, published in 1994, added more behaviors and included a crucial typographical error that significantly influenced diagnosis rates. The DSM incorrectly stated that autism involved impairments in communication “or” behavior, rather than “and.” This error went uncorrected for six years, contributing to a dramatic rise in diagnoses— from 1 in 500 children in 1995 to 1 in 150 by 2000.
Broader Screening and Changing Perceptions
In 2007, the American Academy of Pediatrics recommended universal autism screening for children between 18 and 24 months, standardizing the process that had previously been inconsistent. The fifth edition of the DSM, released in 2013, further consolidated the diagnostic categories, collapsing four separate conditions into one: autism spectrum disorder (ASD). This change allowed for a broader identification of individuals on the spectrum and has led to increased awareness and referrals for neurodevelopmental evaluations.
Recent CDC surveys indicate a shift in demographics regarding autism diagnoses. For the first time, higher prevalence rates were noted among children of color compared to white children. The survey found rates of 3.66% for Black children, 3.82% for Asian children, and 3.30% for Latino children, compared to 2.77% for white children. According to Shanter Alexander, an assistant professor at Howard University, this shift reflects improved diagnostic practices for historically underserved communities.
The spectrum of autism diagnoses today encompasses a wide range of abilities. Individuals can include those who hold professional positions and articulate their experiences with autism, as well as those who require significant support. Diagnoses among U.S. adults aged 26 to 34 surged by 450% between 2011 and 2022, according to a study published in the Journal of the American Medical Association.
Kennedy’s assertion in April that “most cases now are severe” has been challenged by experts. A review of CDC data from 2016 revealed that only about 26.7% of diagnosed 8-year-olds exhibited what advocates refer to as “profound autism.” The rate of children diagnosed with profound autism has remained stable since tracking began. In fact, the highest rate of new diagnoses has emerged among children with milder limitations.
The Trump administration’s focus on autism has elicited mixed reactions among researchers and advocates. Many have long sought increased attention for the condition and its impact on individuals and families. However, some express concern regarding the administration’s portrayal of autism as an epidemic. Colin Killick, executive director of the Autistic Self Advocacy Network, criticized the administration for spreading misinformation that may incite public panic. He urged that it is time for policymakers to cease the dissemination of false narratives and focus on initiatives that genuinely benefit the autism community.
This article was supported by the USC Annenberg Center for Health Journalism’s National Fellowship’s Kristy Hammam Fund for Health Journalism.