Traders on the prediction platform Kalshi have shown significant skepticism regarding the likelihood of new stimulus checks being issued to Americans before the end of the year. As reported by FOX Business, the market for potential “tariff rebate” payments has plummeted to a mere 5% chance, a sharp decline from approximately 13.4% earlier in the month. This downturn indicates waning expectations for the federal government to provide direct financial payouts linked to tariff revenue.
Trading activity on Kalshi has been modest yet noteworthy, with total transactions exceeding $451,000. The platform enables users to place real-money wagers on various political, economic, and cultural outcomes, effectively transforming public sentiment into tradable odds. Currently, the odds suggest little confidence that any new checks will materialize.
Former President Donald Trump previously proposed the idea of utilizing tariff revenue to fund $2,000 payments to Americans, while also addressing the nation’s $38 trillion debt. Yet, the outlook for potential rebates has dimmed, reflecting a broader skepticism in financial markets. Other active markets on Kalshi, as well as on the competing platform Polymarket, indicate traders’ doubts regarding the Supreme Court’s support for Trump’s tariff strategy.
Shifts in market sentiment have been notable. On Kalshi, the probability that the Supreme Court will rule in favor of Trump’s tariff plan has decreased to 22%, down 23 points following oral arguments that appeared to raise concerns among several justices. Polymarket displays a similar trend, with odds dropping to approximately 23%, a decrease of 15 points in a comparable timeframe.
The legal scrutiny surrounding Trump’s trade policies has intensified. On November 5, 2023, the Supreme Court heard arguments regarding the legality of Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs. Trump has asserted that without his approach, the United States would be “virtually defenseless against other countries,” emphasizing the case as “life or death for our country.”
As the Supreme Court has yet to issue a ruling, both the future of Trump’s tariff strategy and any potential tariff-linked payments remain in a state of uncertainty. Market participants will be closely monitoring developments as they unfold.