Texas voters are exhibiting a clear divide over the Republican Party’s redistricting proposal, which could potentially secure five additional seats for the GOP in the U.S. House of Representatives. According to a recent poll conducted by Emerson College Polling, 38 percent of respondents oppose the plan to redraw congressional districts, while 36 percent support it. An additional 26 percent of those surveyed remain undecided.
Support for the redistricting plan varies significantly across party lines. Among Republicans, support stands at 58 percent, compared to just 15 percent among Democrats and 24 percent among independent voters. This split reflects the broader national discourse on redistricting, where political motivations often shape public opinion.
In an effort to disrupt the redistricting process, Texas House Democrats have left the state, aiming to prevent the legislature from achieving the required quorum to proceed with discussions. This move has stalled the proposal during an ongoing special session, although Texas Governor Greg Abbott has indicated plans to call another session soon. The redistricting effort, which is supported by President Trump, is seen as a strategic maneuver to bolster GOP representation ahead of the 2024 elections.
When asked about Trump’s assertion in July that Texas Republicans “are entitled to five more congressional seats,” the Emerson poll revealed that 40 percent of voters agreed with the statement, while 38 percent disagreed and 22 percent remained neutral. Currently, Republicans hold 25 of Texas’s 38 congressional seats, and the proposed changes could potentially increase their advantage to 30-8.
The situation has intensified as Texas House Democrats face significant repercussions for their quorum-breaking actions. They could incur hefty fines or even face arrest. When respondents were asked whether these Democrats should be arrested, 41 percent agreed, while 37 percent disagreed, and 22 percent were neutral.
Key figures in the Republican Party, including Sen. Jon Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, have taken a strong stance in this redistricting battle. Cornyn has called for federal assistance from the FBI to locate the absent Democrats. Meanwhile, a judge in Illinois recently denied Paxton’s request to hold these Democrats in contempt for their actions.
This political showdown occurs against the backdrop of a competitive primary fight for the Senate in 2026, with Paxton positioning himself as a conservative challenger to the incumbent. Notably, majorities of both Cornyn and Paxton supporters in the Emerson poll expressed that quorum-breaking legislators should face arrest, with support for this stance being 11 percentage points higher among Paxton’s backers.
The Emerson College poll was conducted from August 11 to 12, 2023, among 1,000 active registered voters in Texas. It carries a credibility interval of plus or minus 3 percentage points, reflecting the nuanced opinions of the state’s electorate as the midterm elections approach.