A recent study conducted by the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR) and the Center for Demographic Studies (CED) has revealed staggering mortality figures in Gaza due to the ongoing conflict. The researchers estimate that between October 7, 2023, and December 31, 2024, approximately 78,318 people lost their lives as a direct consequence of the violence. This loss has significantly impacted life expectancy, which in 2024 is projected to be nearly half of what it would have been without the war.
The study, published in the journal Population Health Metrics, underscores the severe ramifications of armed conflict on public health. It further suggests that the violent death toll may now exceed 100,000 as of October 6, 2025, highlighting a critical humanitarian crisis in the region.
Understanding Mortality in Conflict Zones
The researchers faced considerable challenges in accurately estimating mortality rates due to the often distorted and incomplete data from conflict zones. The team, including authors Ana C. Gómez-Ugarte and Irena Chen, developed a robust analytical approach that accounts for the inherent uncertainties in the data, allowing for a clearer assessment of the conflict’s impact on mortality.
Their methodology included data from reputable sources such as the Gaza Ministry of Health, the Israeli Information Center for Human Rights in the Occupied Territories (B’Tselem), the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), and the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS). Gómez-Ugarte emphasized the need for reliable metrics despite data limitations, stating, “The tension between data limitations and the demand for meaningful metrics was the impetus for this study.”
In their analysis, the researchers used a pseudo-Bayesian modeling approach to estimate mortality rates, acknowledging that official sources may underreport fatalities. They also highlighted uncertainties regarding the demographics of victims, such as age and gender, which are often overlooked in aggregate death counts.
The Impact on Life Expectancy
The findings show a dramatic decline in life expectancy in Gaza, which fell by 44% in 2023 and 47% in 2024 compared to pre-conflict levels. This translates to losses of approximately 34.4 years in 2023 and 36.4 years in 2024. The age and gender distribution of violent deaths in Gaza during this period closely mirrored patterns seen in various genocides documented by the United Nations Inter-Agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UN IGME).
While the term “genocide” carries specific legal implications, the study did not focus on this aspect but rather aimed to offer a flexible framework for estimating conflict-related mortality. The researchers noted that their estimates likely represent a lower limit of the actual mortality burden, as they only accounted for direct conflict-related deaths.
“The indirect effects of war, which are often greater and more long-lasting, are not quantified in our considerations,” Gómez-Ugarte explained. This distinction is critical, as it underscores the broader implications of the conflict beyond immediate fatalities.
The study advocates for integrating uncertainties into mortality estimates using advanced statistical tools. “Urgency should not be an excuse for a lack of methodological rigor. We encourage researchers working on the demography of conflict to incorporate uncertainties directly into mortality estimates,” Gómez-Ugarte stressed.
As the situation in Gaza continues to deteriorate, these findings serve as a stark reminder of the urgent need for accurate data to inform humanitarian responses and policy decisions. The research highlights the profound human cost of conflict and the importance of addressing the underlying issues contributing to this crisis.
For further details, the full study can be accessed in Population Health Metrics (2025).