Payments through the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) have faced delays due to the ongoing government shutdown. However, cuts included in the summer’s budget bill, known as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, are poised to have long-term consequences for vulnerable families. The act proposes $186 billion in cuts to SNAP over the next decade, part of a wider $1.1 trillion reduction aimed at offsetting losses from tax cuts totaling $4.5 trillion.
The changes to SNAP introduced in the budget bill include a requirement for some states to contribute towards the cost of benefits for the first time in the program’s history. This could exacerbate food insecurity, as families at or below 130% of the poverty line, approximately $34,645 annually for a household of three, might find it increasingly difficult to access the support they need.
In 2023, around 42 million people relied on SNAP, receiving an average of $400 per month. Notably, 34% of households benefiting from SNAP included children and teenagers. The new funding model, which begins in 2027, stipulates that states with a benefit error rate of 6% or higher must contribute between 5% and 15% of the benefits paid.
According to Bitler, a faculty affiliate of the UC Davis Center for Poverty and Inequality Research, states may struggle to manage their budgets and improve efficiency, potentially leading to stricter eligibility checks for populations that historically have higher error rates. This could result in a reduction in participation rates among those who need assistance the most.
Research into SNAP and its predecessor, the Food Stamp Program, which has been in operation since 1939, indicates that the program effectively reduces food insecurity. It has also been linked to improved health outcomes, such as better birth weights and enhanced academic performance in children. For instance, a recent study from the National Bureau of Economic Research noted that women born in areas with access to the Food Stamp Program experienced approximately 3% higher earnings, equating to roughly $800 annually in 2019 dollars by the age of 32.
In addition to the direct cuts to SNAP, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act introduces new work requirements. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that this could lead to 2.4 million fewer individuals qualifying for SNAP each month. It also projects that around 300,000 people may lose their benefits monthly as states adjust to the funding changes. Furthermore, approximately 96,000 children may see a decrease in subsidies from child nutrition programs.
The cuts to SNAP could have ripple effects beyond the families relying on the program. Grocery stores and retailers that accept Electronic Benefits Transfer (EBT) cards are likely to see diminished sales. In 2024, SNAP benefits were valued at $93.6 billion, and these funds directly support food retailers. Research shows that SNAP participation correlates with increased retail sales, with an estimated rise of 1.6% percentage points in retail sales and a 4.2% increase in payrolls for food-related businesses.
As discussions around government spending and budget cuts continue, the future of SNAP and its crucial role in providing food security for millions remains uncertain. The implications of these changes will likely affect not only those directly involved but also the broader economy, highlighting the interconnectedness of food assistance and local businesses.