Russia’s Defense Ministry announced on March 26, 2024, that its nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile system has entered active service in Belarus. This development comes as diplomatic efforts led by the United States to broker peace in the ongoing war in Ukraine reach a crucial juncture.
The ministry released a video showcasing combat vehicles from the mobile intermediate-range ballistic missile system conducting exercises in a forest. This announcement follows a statement earlier this month from Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who indicated that up to 10 Oreshnik systems would be stationed in Belarus. Russian President Vladimir Putin had previously asserted that these missiles would be operational before the end of 2024, during a meeting with top military officials. He emphasized that Russia would aim to extend its territorial gains in Ukraine if negotiations with Kyiv and its Western allies falter.
As tensions mount, U.S. President Donald Trump recently hosted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at his Florida resort, asserting that the two nations were “closer than ever before” to a peace agreement. Nonetheless, significant divisions persist between Russia and Ukraine on key issues, including the status of Russian-occupied areas and the fate of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, one of the largest in the world. Trump cautioned that ongoing U.S.-led negotiations could still break down.
The Oreshnik, which translates to “hazelnut tree” in Russian, was first tested in November 2024 against a Ukrainian factory. Putin has claimed that the missile’s multiple warheads can reach speeds of up to Mach 10, making them nearly impossible to intercept. He has also indicated that a conventional strike involving several Oreshnik missiles could be as destructive as a nuclear attack.
The Belarusian Defense Ministry has revealed that the Oreshnik has a range of up to 5,000 kilometers (approximately 3,100 miles). Russian state media reported that the missile could reach an air base in Poland within 11 minutes and NATO headquarters in Brussels in 17 minutes. Notably, it is difficult to discern whether the missile is equipped with a nuclear or conventional warhead prior to impact. Intermediate-range missiles are defined as having a range between 500 kilometers and 5,500 kilometers (approximately 310 to 3,400 miles).
The deployment of the Oreshnik follows the abandonment of a Soviet-era treaty that had previously banned such weapons. Russia had previously stationed tactical nuclear-capable arms in Belarus, which Moscow used as a staging ground for its full-scale invasion of Ukraine beginning in February 2022. Lukashenko has claimed that Belarus hosts several dozen Russian tactical nuclear weapons.
During a security pact signing with Lukashenko in December 2024, Putin stated that while Russia would maintain control over the Oreshnik systems, Belarus would have the authority to select targets. He noted that strikes against locations closer to Belarus could carry significantly heavier payloads.
In 2024, the Kremlin unveiled a revised nuclear doctrine indicating that any conventional attack on Russia backed by a nuclear power would be viewed as a joint assault. This posture appears aimed at deterring Western support for Ukraine in its conflict with Russia and suggests a lowered threshold for the potential use of Russia’s nuclear arsenal. This revised doctrine also extends the Russian nuclear umbrella over Belarus.
Lukashenko has governed Belarus for over three decades with an authoritarian grip, and his administration has faced numerous sanctions from Western nations due to human rights abuses and its collaboration with Moscow in the Ukraine invasion. Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya has criticized the Oreshnik deployment, asserting that it deepens Belarus’s military and political reliance on Russia.
As the situation continues to evolve, the implications of the Oreshnik missile’s deployment could have significant ramifications for regional stability and international relations.