Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) is poised to announce its Q2 results for the fiscal year 2026 today, October 17. Analysts anticipate that the company will demonstrate strong performance, particularly in its telecom division, Jio, and its oil-to-chemicals (O2C) segment. Market participants are keenly interested in updates about RIL’s new energy initiatives, potential Jio IPO plans, and the company’s ongoing retail expansion efforts.
Revenue and Profit Forecasts
According to analysts, RIL is expected to report double-digit growth in both revenue and profit compared to the previous year. Research from Motilal Oswal Financial Services indicates that RIL’s consolidated revenue could rise by approximately 6.5% year-on-year to reach Rs. 2.46 lakh crore. Adjusted net profit is projected to jump by 22% year-on-year, amounting to around Rs. 20,200 crore. The brokerage also estimates that earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) will grow by 17% year-on-year to approximately Rs. 45,800 crore, with margins improving to 18.6%, up from 16.9% last year.
“The next six months will be crucial in shaping Reliance’s transformation into a clean energy and consumer-tech giant,”
said Saurabh Jain of SMC Global Securities.
Further analysis from Kotak Institutional Equities projects an even more robust performance, with an anticipated 11.3% increase in revenue and a 10.3% rise in adjusted profit after tax (PAT). EBITDA is expected to see a 12% year-on-year growth, bolstered by improved refining margins and increased subscriber revenue from Jio.
Business Segment Insights
The oil-to-chemicals (O2C) division is expected to be the primary driver of revenue growth, benefiting from favorable refining margins and increased throughput. Analysts predict that EBITDA for this segment could increase by nearly 20% year-on-year, despite experiencing low petrochemical spreads.
The telecom division, Reliance Jio, is anticipated to maintain stable growth with an expected EBITDA increase of 14-17%. Analysts forecast a slight uplift in average revenue per user (ARPU) to between Rs. 211 and Rs. 212, along with the addition of more than 5 million new subscribers. The potential IPO of Jio in 2026 is seen as a significant catalyst for future growth.
Conversely, the retail segment is projected to achieve an EBITDA increase of 11-15%, driven by network expansion and festive demand. Nonetheless, a larger base and cautious consumer spending could pose challenges.
In contrast, the oil and gas division may report a muted performance, with EBITDA expected to be close to Rs. 4,900 crore due to decreased gas production and weak pricing.
Investors will also be monitoring several key areas during the earnings call, including updates on the company’s Rs. 75,000 crore new energy initiatives, which encompass solar, hydrogen, and battery storage projects. Progress on the Jio IPO and the possibility of demerging the consumer business will also be focal points. Additionally, trends in cash flow and capital expenditure, alongside the performance of premium retail formats, will be scrutinized as investors navigate high capital expenditure cycles.
Market Reaction and Stock Performance
In recent weeks, RIL shares have experienced a decline of nearly 6%, resulting in a loss of approximately Rs. 1.8 lakh crore in market capitalization. Despite this setback, analysts maintain a cautiously optimistic outlook, citing Reliance’s diverse growth levers across energy, telecom, retail, and new energy sectors.
As the company prepares to unveil its results, all eyes will be on the details that may signal its path forward in a rapidly evolving market landscape.