As the midterm elections approach, recent polling indicates challenges for both President Donald Trump and the Democratic Party. Although Trump’s approval ratings have fallen sharply, the Democrats appear to be struggling even more. With just over a year until the elections, these trends could significantly impact the political landscape.
Polling data reveals that Trump has become the least popular president in his first year, only surpassed by his own ratings in 2017. While the 2018 midterms resulted in a historic loss for his party in the House, the Republicans managed to expand their Senate control. Now back in the White House, Trump faces a complex political environment, with polls suggesting he has an approval rating of around 43 percent and a disapproval rating hovering at 53 percent to 54 percent.
Recent surveys, including a CBS News–YouGov poll, show that Trump is significantly underwater regarding economic management. Only 38 percent of voters approve of his handling of the economy, while 62 percent disapprove. Similarly, a NBC News poll found that just 34 percent of voters believe Trump has met his economic promises, with 63 percent expressing dissatisfaction.
These figures are troubling for the President, particularly as high consumer prices have shifted voter sentiment. During his first term, Trump enjoyed higher approval ratings for his economic policies, but the current economic climate is proving challenging. The Washington Post–ABC News–Ipsos poll echoed these results, with 37 percent approving of Trump’s economic approach.
While the Democrats may see opportunities in Trump’s declining numbers, their own polling results are less encouraging. According to the CBS News–YouGov poll, only 28 percent of voters trust Democrats to manage the economy, compared to 35 percent who prefer the Republican Party. This contrasts sharply with December 2017, when Democrats held a five-point advantage on economic issues.
On immigration and crime, the Democrats also find themselves trailing. The CBS News–YouGov poll shows that only 26 percent of voters believe Democrats would handle immigration effectively, while 39 percent trust Trump and the Republicans. The NBC News survey presents an even bleaker picture for the opposition, reporting that just 22 percent favor Democrats on border security compared to 53 percent for Republicans.
In terms of crime, only 24 percent of voters believe Democrats could manage the issue best, while 46 percent favor the GOP. The Democrats only lead on a few issues, including protecting constitutional rights and healthcare.
Looking ahead to the elections, the generic ballot for Democrats shows a slim lead of just three points, as per the Washington Post–ABC News–Ipsos poll. In contrast, Democrats held an eleven-point advantage in the lead-up to the 2018 midterms.
This shift in voter sentiment has not gone unnoticed by Republicans. James Blair, Trump’s deputy chief of staff for legislative and political affairs, commented on social media that the current midterm outlook is favorable for the GOP, highlighting their improved standing compared to late 2017.
Trump himself has expressed optimism about his polling numbers, stating, “I have the best poll numbers I’ve ever had,” during a press conference aboard Air Force One. He claimed these numbers are better than any president has seen in many years.
As both parties gear up for the midterms, the evolving polling landscape presents a dynamic and uncertain environment that will likely shape their strategies in the months to come.