UPDATE: The likelihood of U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi being the first to exit President Donald Trump’s Cabinet has dramatically surged, overtaking Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem. This shift comes as Bondi faces intense scrutiny regarding the handling of cases tied to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.
According to prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket, Bondi’s chances of leaving the Cabinet have risen significantly since her questioning by the House Judiciary Committee during an oversight hearing on Capitol Hill earlier this week. On February 11, her odds stood at just 12 percent for being the first to depart; by February 12, that figure jumped to 22 percent. Polymarket indicates her departure odds are even higher, now at 52 percent, up from 45 percent the previous day.
In contrast, Noem is not without her own challenges. She faces accusations related to the deaths of two U.S. citizens at the hands of federal agents. Alex Pretti, an ICU nurse, was fatally shot by a federal immigration officer in Minneapolis during a controversial enforcement operation in January. This incident followed the January 7 death of Renee Good, killed by an ICE agent during another enforcement action.
Amidst this turmoil, Illinois Democratic Representative Robin Kelly has introduced three articles of impeachment against Noem, citing obstruction of Congress and self-dealing among the charges. Currently, prediction markets reflect Noem’s chances of leaving the Cabinet at 16 percent per Kalshi and 49 percent according to Polymarket.
For either Bondi or Noem to exit the Cabinet, they would need to resign, be impeached and convicted by Congress, or be dismissed by Trump. Given the Republican Party’s majorities in both chambers of Congress and Trump’s ongoing support for both officials, such scenarios currently appear unlikely.
This is a rapidly evolving story with significant implications for both women’s political futures. Stay tuned for more updates as this situation develops.