UPDATE: A new Quinnipiac University poll reveals a significant lead for Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro over Vice President JD Vance in a potential 2028 presidential matchup. The poll, conducted from September 25-29, shows Shapiro at 53% compared to Vance’s 43% among registered voters in Pennsylvania, a critical swing state for future elections.
This urgent finding, released just hours ago, underscores the shifting political landscape as both candidates consider their future moves. With a strong base, 97% of Democrats support Shapiro, while 89% of Republicans back Vance. However, the independent voter bloc—crucial in swing states—leans heavily towards Shapiro, with 58% indicating they would choose him over Vance’s 33%.
The poll also highlights voter perceptions of favorability, with Shapiro earning a 58% favorable rating and Vance trailing at 43%. Notably, Vance faces a 47% unfavorable rating, indicating potential challenges ahead as he prepares for the upcoming Republican primary.
Shapiro’s rising profile comes after being overlooked for the vice presidential spot by Kamala Harris in the 2024 election. The governor has become a prominent figure in the Democratic Party, positioning himself as a formidable contender against any GOP rival. With a 60% approval rating—the highest since Quinnipiac began tracking in June 2023—Shapiro’s term has resonated well with Pennsylvania voters, despite a 28% disapproval rate.
As the political climate evolves, Shapiro is expected to run for reelection, currently holding a robust lead over Republican candidate Stacy Garrity at 55% support compared to Garrity’s 39%. Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump holds a 43% approval rating in Pennsylvania, with a concerning 54% disapproval rating among registered voters.
This poll surveyed 1,579 self-identified registered voters and carries a margin of error of ±3.3% percentage points, making these insights crucial as the 2028 election cycle gears up. The implications of voter sentiment in Pennsylvania could shape the strategies for both parties moving forward.
Stay tuned for more updates as the political landscape continues to shift.