NASA’s Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel has raised concerns that the lunar lander version of SpaceX’s Starship may not be ready to support the Artemis 3 mission as scheduled in 2027. During a public meeting on September 19, 2023, panel members indicated that the Human Landing System (HLS) version of Starship could face significant delays, potentially lasting for years.
Panelist Paul Hill shared insights after a visit to SpaceX’s Starbase facility, which included discussions with company executives. He highlighted that the current schedule for the HLS is “significantly challenged,” leading to the belief that it may not meet the timeline for a moon landing in 2027. A key issue identified is the requirement for cryogenic propellant transfer, which is necessary for refueling Starship in low Earth orbit before its moon mission.
Challenges Ahead for SpaceX’s Lunar Ambitions
Hill pointed out that progress has been hindered by delays in the development of version 3 of Starship, which is the first iteration capable of performing the required propellant transfers. Additionally, improvements to the version 3 Raptor engine have caused further setbacks. Although Hill did not specify the exact problems encountered, Gwynne Shotwell, President of SpaceX, expressed her concerns during the World Space Business Week on September 16, 2023. She stated that the challenges of propellant transfer were more concerning than the docking of Starships in orbit, remarking, “Hopefully it’s not as hard as some of my engineers think it could be.”
Despite these concerns, the panel commended SpaceX for its significant achievements. Hill emphasized the efficiency of the Falcon 9 rocket, noting that its rapid launch cadence, largely driven by the Starlink project, has resulted in “unprecedented experience in spacecraft and booster manufacturing, launch preparation, and flight operations.” He cautioned, however, that this rapid pace creates competing priorities that could adversely affect the development of Starship and the HLS.
Uncertainty Surrounds Artemis Program
During the meeting, panel member Bill Bray expressed broader apprehensions regarding the Artemis program. He confirmed that preparations for Artemis 2, scheduled for launch in early 2026, are on track. Nonetheless, he noted that the path towards Artemis 3 and subsequent missions appears “uncertain and a little murky,” raising concerns about safety and risk management.
Bray specifically pointed to the development timelines for both the HLS and Axiom Space‘s new lunar spacesuits, which are described as having “aggressive” schedules. He warned, “Any delay in the delivery of these programs places the planned lunar landing in jeopardy of postponement and/or significant delay.” He stressed that both initiatives are critical for the success of Artemis 3 and future missions, urging for a thorough evaluation of their schedules to determine feasibility.
The panel has committed to ongoing scrutiny of the Starship HLS program, with plans for “thorough factfinding” regarding its design and the intricacies of cryogenic propellant transfer in upcoming meetings. The focus remains on ensuring that the ambitious goals of the Artemis program are met without compromising safety and reliability.