Mike Johnson, the Speaker of the House, is navigating one of the most significant legislative challenges of his career. As early as this morning, Johnson plans to push the Senate-approved megabill through the House, facing opposition from numerous Republicans who are threatening to vote against it. The bill, which includes deeper Medicaid cuts and steeper deficit increases than anticipated, has sparked controversy within the Republican ranks.
The urgency is heightened by a self-imposed deadline from former President Donald Trump, who expects the bill to be passed by July 4. However, severe thunderstorms in Washington D.C. are complicating matters, potentially affecting attendance. Johnson expressed his frustration on Tuesday, stating, “We’ll see. I’ve got to play the cards that are dealt to me,” acknowledging his dissatisfaction with the Senate’s amendments.
Republican Dissent and Legislative Strategy
Johnson has a narrow window of 24 to 48 hours to persuade hesitant fiscal conservatives and Medicaid moderates to accept the Senate’s version of the bill. On Monday, he engaged in discussions with concerned lawmakers and caucuses, strategizing on how to pass the legislation without alterations. Although in contact with Senate Majority Leader John Thune throughout the process, Johnson did not consult him immediately before the Senate vote, according to POLITICO.
The bill faces stiff resistance from the House Freedom Caucus, with members like Reps. Chip Roy (R-Texas) and Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) criticizing it for increasing the deficit and diluting clean energy tax credits. Both representatives opposed the bill in the Rules Committee. Meanwhile, House moderates are alarmed by the substantial Medicaid cuts, which Johnson privately warned could jeopardize Republican control of the House in the 2026 elections.
Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) delivered a speech condemning the Senate’s Medicaid provisions, resonating with many vulnerable Republicans.
Potential for Compromise and Legislative Maneuvering
Despite the challenges, there are signs of potential progress. Rep. Nick LaLota (R-N.Y.) showed a willingness to support the bill after previously rejecting a deal on a state-and-local tax deduction. Similarly, Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R-N.J.) expressed a more favorable view following a local provider tax adjustment in the wraparound amendment for New Jersey and other states.
Nevertheless, putting the bill on the House floor remains a gamble. Many Republicans believe it would fail without further modifications. Johnson, however, has a history of successfully introducing bills without secured votes, often relying on Trump’s influence to sway dissenters.
Weather and Legislative Timelines
Meanwhile, adverse weather conditions could delay the House vote. Over 200 flights to Reagan National Airport were either canceled or delayed on Tuesday due to thunderstorms, according to FlightAware. Johnson acknowledged that these travel disruptions might postpone the vote, initially expected as early as Wednesday.
Looking ahead, Johnson hinted at future legislative opportunities. In a Fox News interview, he mentioned plans for two additional reconciliation bills during the current Congressional session, which concludes in 2026. This suggests ongoing efforts to address party priorities through legislative packages.
This unfolding situation underscores the complexities of legislative negotiations, with Johnson at the center of a high-stakes political battle. As the deadline looms, the outcome will have significant implications for the Republican agenda and the broader political landscape.