Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado is positioned to achieve a significant electoral victory in Venezuela, according to her supporters and international observers. They contend that a fair election would see her winning decisively against the regime of President Nicolás Maduro. Despite the current political landscape, the prospects for democracy in Venezuela remain precarious, with Maduro’s deputy still in control.
The sentiment among Venezuelans is clear, even in the face of a restrictive electoral environment. During the recent 2024 elections, the opposition candidate Edmundo González, who ran after Machado was barred from participating, reportedly secured 67% of the votes compared to Maduro’s 30%. These figures, derived from opposition sources, have been denied by Maduro’s government. Pedro Urruchurtu Noselli, spokesperson for the opposition, emphasized the significance of this outcome, stating, “Even with unfair conditions, intimidation and repression, we were able to show the magnitude of our victory.”
Calls for Democratic Transition
Machado, a Nobel Peace Prize laureate, previously garnered an overwhelming 93% of the votes in the opposition primary held in October 2023 before her disqualification. Her supporters believe she represents the only credible leadership capable of steering Venezuela towards true democratic governance. Urruchurtu expressed confidence in Machado’s potential to lead a transition, stating, “That is who Venezuelans trust to lead a real transition — not only politically, but with real plans, real teams, and real programs ready to implement immediately.”
Despite the opposition’s desire for U.S. President Donald Trump to recognize Machado’s leadership, current U.S. policy appears to be shifting towards engagement with Maduro’s vice president, Delcy Rodríguez, who was sworn in as interim president following Maduro’s detention. Secretary of State Marco Rubio labeled the recent elections as “illegitimate” during an interview, highlighting the consensus among many that Maduro’s regime continues to exert undue influence.
Urruchurtu criticized the U.S. strategy, expressing skepticism about Rodríguez’s willingness to facilitate real change. “How can you think reforms and democratization are possible when people are being persecuted just for posting online or expressing joy?” he questioned. He pointed out that even with Maduro’s arrest, the political landscape remains largely unchanged.
Opposition Readiness and International Support
Venezuelan politician Carlos Paparoni expressed strong confidence in Machado’s ability to win a fair election, stating, “With complete seriousness and responsibility, I tell you that there is no human way that Maria Corina can lose an election in Venezuela today.” A source familiar with the White House’s approach to Venezuela reiterated this belief, suggesting that Machado would win by a substantial margin if elections were held immediately.
Despite the grim political environment, many observers remain hopeful. Legal expert Eva Golinger remarked that the current situation does not favor a democratic transition, indicating that the same power structures remain intact. She noted that the legislative leadership continues under Maduro’s influence, despite his recent arrest.
Urruchurtu underscored the need for international recognition of the opposition as legitimate leaders, which he argues is essential for facilitating free elections. He contended that any credible transition must prioritize the release of political prisoners and an end to state repression. “The first signal must be freedom — freedom of expression, freedom for political prisoners, respect for human rights,” he asserted.
In light of these challenges, the opposition has expressed gratitude for U.S. actions against Maduro, viewing them as a step towards liberation. Urruchurtu stated, “Seeing Maduro detained is a huge victory for the Venezuelan people — the first step toward liberation.” However, he cautioned that true liberation will only occur when the existing power structures are dismantled and the legitimate leadership is allowed to govern.
With the opposition ready to implement reforms and collaborate closely with international allies, the call for a return to democratic processes in Venezuela remains urgent. Urruchurtu concluded, “We are ready to take power. We are ready to implement reforms. We are ready to work with President Trump. But the transition must reflect what Venezuelans already decided at the ballot box.”