Visitor arrivals from Japan to Hawaii are rebounding in the latter half of the year, providing a positive outlook for the tourism industry. Despite a sluggish start to 2025, industry stakeholders now anticipate that the number of Japanese visitors may end the year flat or even slightly improved compared to last year. This trend is particularly significant as Japan remains Hawaii’s largest source of international tourists, with substantial tourism infrastructure on Oahu tailored to this market.
According to the state Department of Business Economic Development and Tourism (DBEDT), Japan is projected to contribute approximately 700,000 visitor arrivals in 2025, marking a 2.8% decline from 2024. Additionally, spending by Japanese tourists is expected to reach $1.05 billion, a 2.4% decrease from the previous year. Despite these declines, industry experts are optimistic about the second half of the year.
Eric Takahata, managing director for Hawai‘i Tourism Japan (HTJ), noted that visitor numbers have begun to climb. He stated, “August should be one of the strongest months of the year for Japan arrivals. September numbers should also show an increase compared to 2024.” So far, DBEDT reported that around 319,474 visitors from Japan arrived in Hawaii through June, reflecting a 3.2% drop from the same period in 2024, and a substantial 56.5% decline from the first half of 2019.
Travel dynamics are shifting positively, with some Japanese travel agencies predicting a 20% increase in arrivals during the Obon holiday, which honors ancestors and typically sees increased outbound travel from Japan. The holiday period extends from August 13 to August 16 in 2025, following the Mountain Day holiday on August 11. Takahata remarked on the favorable calendar positioning this year, which has allowed travelers to maximize their time off.
The Honolulu Marathon, scheduled for December 2025, also plays a crucial role in attracting Japanese visitors. Jim Barahal, president and CEO of the Honolulu Marathon Association, noted that entries from Japan are currently tracking 27% above last year. He anticipates between 12,000 to 13,000 Japanese entrants for the marathon events, which reflects a growing interest in Hawaii as a travel destination.
While the overall travel market faces challenges, including capacity reductions from Hawaiian Airlines, carriers like Japan Airlines (JAL) and All Nippon Airways (ANA) are increasing their services. Danny Ojiri, vice president of market development at Outrigger Hospitality Group, highlighted that JAL is extending daily services from Osaka and Nagoya through January 2026 and is adding more seats during peak travel periods, such as the Honolulu Marathon and year-end holidays.
Takahata emphasized that this increase in capacity, alongside lower fuel surcharges—down about $100 round-trip compared to last year—signals a potential for a stronger recovery. He added that a favorable exchange rate influenced by the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy adjustments could further enhance travel to Hawaii.
Despite the positive signs, challenges remain. Ojiri pointed out that Hawaii is still lagging behind other overseas destinations for Japanese travelers. Concerns related to U.S. immigration policies and the high cost of travel continue to create hesitancy among potential visitors. He stressed the importance of reinforcing Hawaii’s welcoming image to ensure that international travelers feel embraced by the Aloha spirit.
Looking ahead, Takahata indicated that HTJ’s budget for 2026 was cut by $900,000 to $5.4 million, which presents challenges for marketing efforts. Nonetheless, he expressed confidence in shifting focus towards messaging that emphasizes “Hawaii Welcomes You” to Japanese visitors.
As the year progresses, the outlook for Hawaiian tourism remains cautiously optimistic, with significant potential for recovery as visitors from Japan increasingly commit to travel plans. The combination of cultural events, favorable travel conditions, and the enduring appeal of Hawaii as a holiday destination could contribute to a positive closing to 2025 for the state’s visitor industry.