With a series of decisive military actions against Iran and its allies, Israel has reaffirmed its military supremacy in the Middle East, reshaping the geopolitical landscape just two years after being caught off guard by a surprise attack. The recent ceasefire between Israel and Iran, following 12 days of intense airstrikes, may signal a temporary halt to the major conflicts that erupted after the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023. However, the region remains fraught with unresolved issues.
The political disputes between Israel and its adversaries persist, often exacerbated by the recent violence. Furthermore, Israel’s international standing has suffered due to the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Gaza and the significant number of Palestinian civilian casualties.
Israel’s Military Strategy and Regional Impact
For decades, Israel has viewed Iran as its most formidable adversary. From the outset of Israel’s military campaign on June 13, its air force dominated the skies over Iran, targeting nuclear sites and military facilities, and eliminating key leaders. Despite Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, claiming victory, former U.S. President Donald Trump countered, asserting that Iran had suffered significant losses.
These developments follow Israel’s conflicts with Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, which severely weakened both groups, long considered Iranian allies. Additionally, the ousting of Syria’s dictator, Bashar al-Assad, in December removed another regional rival with close ties to Iran, although Israel did not play a direct role in his downfall.
The Collapse of Iran’s Proxy Network
Iran’s strategy of building a network of proxies, known as the “axis of resistance,” aimed to encircle Israel with threats. However, the past two years have demonstrated Israel’s military dominance, bolstered by U.S. support. According to Hussein Ibish of the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, “The Iranian camp is decimated and beaten to smithereens.”
While Middle East conflicts are frequent, they are often contained. The severity of the Hamas attack, which resulted in over 1,100 Israeli deaths in a single day, prompted a massive Israeli response. “Hamas tries to claim they didn’t anticipate the scale of Israel’s retaliation, but that’s just absolute nonsense,” Ibish noted.
Military Successes and Political Challenges
Despite Israel’s military gains, the region’s political challenges remain unresolved, particularly regarding the Palestinians. The ongoing conflict in Gaza, though largely one-sided, continues to inflict heavy casualties on Palestinians, many of whom are civilians struggling to access scarce food aid. Palestinian health officials report over 56,000 Palestinian deaths, mostly women and children.
“When the genocide case was first launched, I thought it was plainly hyperbolic, but now it’s become a very serious case indeed,” said Hussein Ibish.
Before the Gaza conflict, Israel was making diplomatic strides with Arab nations, with the U.S. advocating for formal ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia. However, the Saudis have stalled these efforts, insisting on progress toward a political resolution with the Palestinians.
The Role of the U.S. and Future Prospects
Israel’s relationship with the U.S. has experienced moments of tension, such as Trump’s criticism of Israel’s handling of the ceasefire with Iran. Nevertheless, the alliance remains strong, as evidenced by U.S. airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear program. Trump recently praised Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, highlighting their joint efforts against Iran.
“Bibi and I just went through HELL together, fighting a very tough and brilliant longtime enemy of Israel, Iran,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
Following the Hamas attack, Netanyahu’s political future seemed uncertain. However, his leadership during the conflict has bolstered his position. “The Israel that has emerged is confident and seeks to settle its security issues regionally,” said Vali Nasr, an Iran expert at Johns Hopkins University. Yet, Nasr cautioned that the outcome remains uncertain, with the potential for the region to revert to a more dangerous stalemate.
As Israel navigates its military and political challenges, the Middle East stands at a crossroads. The resolution of these conflicts will shape the region’s future, with significant implications for global geopolitics.