Senator John Thune (R-SD) is actively working to persuade Senator Joni Ernst (R-IA) to seek reelection, as reported by Politico on March 15, 2024. Thune expressed his commitment to encouraging Ernst to continue her political career, stating, “I’m doing everything I can to encourage her to run for reelection.” He acknowledged that the final decision rests with Ernst and noted that she appears to be moving forward with her plans.
Ernst, who has served in the Senate since her election in 2014, has long been considered one of the Republican Party’s promising figures. Although she indicated her intention to run for reelection last year, recent developments have led to speculation regarding her commitment. Political strategists suggest that she may feel overwhelmed and could be contemplating retirement.
As the situation unfolds, attention will focus on Ernst’s upcoming campaign fundraising totals, expected to be released next week. In the first quarter of 2025, she raised just over $1 million, a figure deemed solid but not particularly strong for an incumbent senator in a contested election cycle.
Ernst’s spokesperson, Palmer Brigham, declined to confirm her plans for the 2026 election cycle, stating, “Senator Ernst is focused on her work delivering for Iowans in the Senate.” Brigham emphasized Ernst’s commitment to legislative priorities, including making President Trump’s historic tax cuts permanent through the “One Big Beautiful Bill” and advancing a robust National Defense Authorization Act.
Challenges for Senate Republicans
Ernst’s potential retirement would add to the challenges currently facing Senate Republicans. Recently, Senator Thom Tillis (R-NC) announced his decision to exit a seat that is expected to be competitive. His departure follows controversy over his lack of support for Trump’s tax cut megabill. Additionally, concerns have arisen regarding Senator John Cornyn (R-TX), who faces a possible primary challenge from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, embroiled in scandal.
Despite the challenges, the Democratic Party has struggled to win a federal statewide election in Iowa since 2012. However, the 2026 race could be more competitive, given the limited number of available Senate seats. Several Democrats have already declared their candidacies, including state representatives J.D. Scholten and Zach Wahls.
Should Ernst decide to retire, political analysts expect that Rep. Ashley Hinson, a former news anchor with significant fundraising capabilities, would likely enter the race as a Republican candidate. As the political landscape evolves, all eyes will be on Iowa as both parties prepare for what could be a pivotal election cycle.