On December 22, 2025, gold prices surged above $4,420 per ounce, driven by increasing demand for safe-haven assets amid a backdrop of macroeconomic uncertainties. As investors shifted their focus to portfolio hedges, Bitcoin traded near $88,000, reigniting comparisons between the two assets. Despite Bitcoin’s high valuation, several analysts cautioned that gold’s recent strength does not guarantee increased inflows into Bitcoin.
Gold’s Rally Linked to Rate-Cut Expectations
Data from CoinCodex indicated that gold reached a near-record price of $4,486, marking a substantial increase from its starting price of approximately $2,600 per ounce at the beginning of 2025. This impressive rise of about 72.5% represents gold’s most significant annual gain since 1979. Analysts attributed this rally to growing expectations for further interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve in 2026.
According to Adrian Ash, research head at BullionVault, factors such as tariff uncertainties, geopolitical tensions, and inflation fears have been pivotal in driving gold’s value upward. Additionally, central banks worldwide have been increasing their physical gold reserves, a trend that Goldman Sachs predicts will continue into the next year, potentially further bolstering gold prices.
As bond yields declined, there was a noticeable uptick in investor interest in commodities, which often attract attention during periods of economic policy uncertainty. This environment has reinforced gold’s status as a traditional store of value.
Bitcoin Struggles Amid Changing Market Dynamics
In contrast to the gold rally, Bitcoin’s performance has not shown the same upward momentum. A recent analysis by CryptoQuant revealed that the narrative of gold attracting Bitcoin investors lacks consistent historical support. By employing 180-day moving averages, analysts noted that Bitcoin’s performance was often more favorable when it traded above its 180-day average, particularly when gold was below its own. However, the relationship between the two assets has varied, with periods where both rose concurrently.
Despite Bitcoin’s potential, it has underperformed compared to major assets, as equities have remained close to record highs. Currently, Bitcoin is approximately 30% below its all-time peak, while gold and silver are trading around 25% and 45% above their respective 200-day averages.
The analysis highlighted a shift in correlation between Bitcoin and gold since mid-2025, with their relationship turning negative in July and diverging further from the Nasdaq in August. Recent data also indicated a $5.1 billion drawdown in spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) from their peak holdings, alongside consistent selling pressure from large holders, referred to as “whales,” since October.
Sovereign news has added further speculation to the market. Reports circulated that Kazakhstan may consider selling portions of its gold reserves, potentially allocating up to $300 million towards Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Such developments have contributed to a complex market sentiment regarding Bitcoin’s future.
Despite challenges, sentiment metrics indicate a longer-term optimism for Bitcoin. A poll conducted by Peter Schiff revealed that 62.4% of respondents believe Bitcoin will reach $100,000 by December 19, 2028.
Traders are now closely monitoring the upcoming U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report for insights into Federal Reserve policy. Analysts suggest that softer inflation data could enhance market liquidity, potentially increasing Bitcoin’s appeal as a risk asset.
This evolving financial landscape underscores the distinct paths of gold and Bitcoin, as each asset navigates a complex interplay of market forces and investor sentiment.