UPDATE: Fantasy basketball enthusiasts are being urged to reconsider their strategies ahead of the upcoming 2024 drafts, with several star players highlighted as high-risk selections. Notably, LaMelo Ball is emerging as a significant cautionary tale due to his ongoing injury struggles.
Last season, Ball averaged an impressive 25.2 points per game (PPG), alongside 7.4 assists per game (APG). However, his total games played over the last three seasons stands at a mere 105, raising red flags for fantasy managers. Ball’s 2024-25 season abruptly ended in March after undergoing surgeries on his ankle and wrist. Despite his undeniable talent, the reality of his injury history makes him a risky third-round pick.
Ja Morant, another player to watch closely, has faced a similar fate. The Memphis Grizzlies point guard has only participated in 59 games over the last two seasons due to various physical and personal issues. This trend of missed games, combined with a declining performance in scoring and assists, makes his ADP of 28.4 seem overly optimistic.
In the New Orleans Pelicans camp, Zion Williamson has been sidelined for most of last season, appearing in just 30 games. While his scoring efficiency is noteworthy, his overall contributions are hampered by his inability to stay on the court. With an ADP of 35.3, Williamson may not be worth the risk in the early rounds.
Meanwhile, Joel Embiid, the centerpiece of the Philadelphia 76ers, is also raising eyebrows with a concerning injury record. After playing just 19 games last season due to a persistent knee issue, his anticipated ADP of 56.6 might tempt some, but the risks involved are substantial.
Injuries are not limited to these four players. Kyrie Irving of the Dallas Mavericks is recovering from a torn left ACL, with a potential return by February 2024, but his history indicates he may not play consistently. Similarly, Dejounte Murray may not be ready until January after tearing his right Achilles, which could severely impact his fantasy value.
While players like Mikal Bridges of the New York Knicks remain healthy, his lackluster fantasy contributions call for caution as well. His ADP is considered too generous given his limited statistical production.
Additionally, fans should be wary of Kristaps Porzingis and John Collins, who have shown inconsistency and limited upside in their new roles. Porzingis is no longer a top-50 fantasy player, while Collins may struggle to replicate last season’s performance in a crowded lineup.
Amid these cautionary tales, rookie Cooper Flagg is emerging as a potential bright spot, though expectations should be tempered as most rookies struggle to produce impactful statistics in their debut seasons.
As the draft season heats up, fantasy managers must weigh the risks versus rewards of these players. Remember, it’s not just about talent; durability and consistent performance are crucial for fantasy success. Stay tuned for further updates as the draft approaches, and prepare to make informed decisions to optimize your fantasy roster!