Expedia Group Inc. is seeing renewed optimism from investors as travel demand in the United States shows signs of recovery. According to analyst Justin Post from Bank of America Securities, the company maintains a “Buy” rating with a price target set at $211. Post believes that a rebound in U.S. bookings during the summer and shoulder season could positively impact Expedia’s stock, which is closely linked to the domestic travel market.
Post highlights that recent trends have stabilized since April, reducing downside risks to estimates. He points to several factors that could benefit Expedia, including ongoing growth in its business-to-business (B2B) and advertising segments. This growth is supported by newly formed partnerships with major airlines such as Southwest Airlines Company and Ryanair Holdings plc.
Financial Projections and Market Response
For the fiscal year 2025, Post anticipates a 7% growth in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA). This estimate is based on a conservative projection of 2% growth from the business-to-consumer (B2C) segment. Given the current landscape of flat U.S. bookings alongside a 33% international exposure, these figures are considered reasonable.
In addition to revenue growth, Post emphasizes Expedia’s robust free cash flow profile and potential for share buybacks. He estimates that the company could repurchase approximately 10% of its shares over the next year, excluding dividends. This strategy, combined with easier year-over-year comparisons expected in 2026, has the potential to bolster investor sentiment.
Despite a challenging year-to-date performance compared to its peers, Expedia’s stock is currently trading at 5.8x estimated 2026 EBITDA and 9x expected 2026 free cash flow—valuations that Post considers attractive.
Current Market Conditions
Recent U.S. air travel data, however, indicates ongoing challenges. According to Bank of America card data, airline spending in June decreased by 10.9%, while lodging spending fell by 3.5%. Although these figures reflect a slowdown compared to previous months, Post remains optimistic that the stability observed in recent trends will mitigate the risk of further estimate reductions.
As of the latest market update, shares of EXPE have risen by 0.88%, reaching $184.60. This uptick reflects a growing confidence among investors regarding the travel industry’s recovery trajectory.
In summary, Expedia Group Inc. stands at a pivotal moment as it navigates the evolving landscape of travel demand. With strategic partnerships and a focus on financial health, the company is well-positioned for a potential rebound in the coming years.