A recent study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology reveals that effective management of aid projects significantly reduces local violence in developing countries. Conducted by economist Jacob Moscona, the research focuses on World Bank initiatives in Africa and highlights the importance of oversight in international aid efforts.
The findings indicate that well-managed aid projects can decrease the likelihood of conflict by as much as 12% compared to poorly administered programs. This research addresses a longstanding debate regarding the impact of aid on violence, suggesting that the key factor is not merely the presence of aid, but how it is implemented.
Moscona’s study, titled “The Management of Aid and Conflict in Africa,” will be published in the November 2025 issue of the American Economic Journal: Economic Policy. This research sheds light on the complexities surrounding aid distribution and its unintended consequences, particularly the potential for increased violence arising from competition over resources.
Research Findings on Aid and Conflict
The study draws on data from World Bank projects spanning from 1997 to 2014, utilizing information from AidData, a nonprofit organization that monitors international aid initiatives. The analysis emphasizes that the management quality of aid projects directly influences their outcomes. Moscona notes, “Well-managed aid projects can actually reduce conflict, and poorly managed projects increase conflict, relative to no conflict. So, the way aid programs are organized is very important.”
One critical aspect of the research is the role of project leadership. By assessing World Bank project leader ratings, Moscona discovered that transitioning from a leader at the 25th percentile to one at the 75th percentile in terms of conflict association increases the likelihood of local conflict by 15%.
The study also highlights that the presence of aid programs does not lead to long-term strategic actions by non-government forces, such as land acquisition or establishing rebel bases. Instead, violence tends to spike when resources become available. Moscona explains that the potential for conflict arises more from the “appearance of desired goods” rather than the establishment of the aid projects themselves.
The Importance of Effective Management
Moscona’s research challenges the notion that political conditions are the primary barrier to effective aid. Instead, he argues that the organization and management of aid programs are crucial. “There are ways these programs can have their positive effects without the negative consequences,” he states. This perspective encourages a reevaluation of how international aid is perceived and administered.
The study also underscores the significance of monitoring and accountability in aid distribution. For example, regular checks on food distribution can minimize theft and ensure resources reach their intended recipients. Innovative practices, such as tagging devices to ensure proper use, have shown promise in reducing resource misappropriation.
As Moscona concludes, the implications of this research extend beyond academic inquiry. The findings may influence future strategies for aid organizations, including the World Bank, by emphasizing the need for improved management practices. “One goal is to change the conversation about aid,” he asserts, aiming to foster a more optimistic view of the potential benefits of well-administered aid programs.
In summary, Jacob Moscona’s research provides a nuanced understanding of the relationship between aid management and local violence, reinforcing the idea that effective oversight can enhance the positive impact of international assistance.