The global decline in birthrates has sparked significant discussion among economists and policymakers, emphasizing the importance of both cultural and economic factors. At the recent Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell addressed various pressing issues, including the role of men in declining fertility rates. Nobel laureate Claudia Goldin highlighted the need to consider traditional gender roles and societal values when examining family planning trends.
Across many developed nations and several major emerging markets, the total fertility rate (TFR)—which indicates the average number of children a woman is expected to have—has fallen below the critical replacement level of 2.1. This trend is particularly pronounced in countries such as South Korea, Japan, and China, but it is a concern echoed by many members of the United Nations. The implications of falling birthrates extend beyond demographics, affecting economic factors such as prices, national budgets, and social safety nets.
While many nations have attempted to implement financial incentives to encourage higher birthrates, these measures have often yielded limited results. For instance, despite being a prosperous nation, Singapore recorded a TFR of just below 1 last year, failing to achieve the increase it had hoped for. Ultimately, the decision to have children lies with couples, influenced by various factors including the financial costs of raising children and personal priorities.
Goldin’s research argues that the desires of men and women regarding family life have diverged significantly. While women today have greater access to education and career opportunities, this has not necessarily translated into higher birthrates. Instead, men often benefit from maintaining traditional roles, which can exacerbate the mismatch in family planning aspirations. If men fail to demonstrate their commitment to being reliable fathers, many women may choose to delay or forgo motherhood altogether.
“The more men can credibly signal that they will be dependable ‘dads’ and not disappointing ‘duds,’ the higher will be the birthrate,” Goldin stated. She emphasizes that while women’s agency is a major factor in declining fertility, the commitment of fathers is a crucial component that cannot be overlooked.
The challenges posed by an aging population and diminishing fertility rates are becoming increasingly significant. In response, some experts suggest that technology, including artificial intelligence, could help mitigate these challenges. Additionally, immigration may play a vital role in addressing labor shortages, although this can be a politically sensitive issue. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda noted that while foreign workers constituted only 3% of Japan’s workforce, they accounted for more than half of the workforce growth from 2023 to 2024.
The current discourse around fertility marks a stark contrast to the attitudes of the 1970s, when population control was often viewed positively. Today, the conversation has shifted towards confronting the potential consequences of a population decline, with concerns over stagnating living standards and a lack of innovation emerging as significant topics. Chad Jones of Stanford Graduate School of Business warns of the unintended consequences that may arise from a shrinking population.
As projections from the United Nations suggest that the world’s population may peak at approximately 10.3 billion in the 2080s before beginning to decline, the need for effective policy responses becomes ever more critical. While government initiatives may not drastically change fertility trends, a deeper examination of societal attitudes and gender roles could be essential in reversing this trend.
In summary, fostering a supportive environment for families, which includes actively engaging fathers, may prove vital in addressing the challenges posed by declining birthrates and an aging population.