This week at the World Space Business Week in Paris, industry leaders gathered to discuss the evolving landscape of space technology and business. In a special episode of the podcast Space Minds, hosted by Mike Gruss of SpaceNews, Pacome Revillon, CEO of Novaspace, shared insights on the growing competition in direct-to-device satellite communications and the increasing importance of military spending within the space sector. The conversation highlighted several themes shaping the industry, including dual-use technologies and the significance of national sovereignty in space strategies.
Direct-to-Device Communications Taking Center Stage
The discussion kicked off with the burgeoning race in direct-to-device (D2D) communications. Revillon noted that recent announcements, such as the collaboration between EchoStar and SpaceX, underscore the urgency in this market. He remarked, “D2D was considered quite a long-term prospect, and now it’s a shorter horizon.” The competition revolves around securing vital spectrum, either through partnerships with mobile network operators (MNOs) or developing proprietary networks. Revillon anticipates that the number of users could reach around 300 million by the end of the decade, contingent on regulatory approval and successful network deployment.
Revillon elaborated on how the D2D technology could enhance national sovereignty. “As automated assets like drones and UAVs become more prevalent, direct-to-device capabilities are crucial,” he explained. He emphasized the necessity for robust infrastructure to support this expansion, especially in light of geopolitical tensions that necessitate more independent communication systems.
Military Spending and Market Consolidation Trends
The conversation then shifted to the increasing defense budgets in various countries, particularly among NATO members. Revillon highlighted that military spending is projected to flow significantly into space capabilities. He stated, “Global defense spending won’t be just about space, but hundreds of billions should flow into defense capabilities.” The focus is not only on traditional military applications but also on dual-use technologies that can serve both civilian and military purposes.
Companies like Airbus have gained traction in this area, securing partnerships with multiple nations. Revillon pointed out that the space economy is on track to grow from $596 billion to $944 billion by 2033, illustrating its critical role in global strategic and economic issues. He noted that companies must position themselves effectively within this expanding market, balancing satellite delivery with comprehensive end-to-end capabilities.
On the topic of market dynamics, Revillon signaled a trend towards increased consolidation within the industry. He expects to see more mergers and acquisitions in the coming years, driven by the necessity for scale and adaptation to market changes. “We’ve seen over 50 transactions annually, and many companies are now around eight to ten years old, making them ripe for consolidation,” he remarked.
Revillon also briefly addressed the competitive landscape posed by China, indicating that while it was not a focal point during the conference, China’s rapid advancements in space capabilities cannot be overlooked. “China is progressing extremely fast—from lunar exploration to security-driven capabilities,” he noted, emphasizing that its influence is significant both in defense and the industrial sector.
As the podcast concluded, Revillon shared his thoughts on the future of artificial intelligence (AI) in space, predicting a gradual increase in its adoption across various applications. He mentioned that while AI is currently used in remote sensing and analytics, the potential for critical applications remains under scrutiny. “The transformation will be massive, though it’s hard to predict what a space asset will look like in 2035 or 2040,” he concluded.
The insights shared by Revillon highlight a pivotal moment for the space industry as it navigates new technologies, shifts in defense spending, and international competition. The upcoming years will be crucial for companies aiming to capitalize on these trends and secure their positions in an increasingly complex market.