California is preparing for an early and potentially severe flu season, driven by a combination of low vaccination rates and a recently mutated virus. Health experts are raising alarms as the state reports its first flu death of the season in Los Angeles County. The flu season typically escalates after the Christmas holiday, but experts predict a spike in cases within the next two to three weeks.
Dr. Elizabeth Hudson, the regional physician chief of infectious diseases at Kaiser Permanente Southern California, has indicated that early indicators suggest a significant uptick in viral activity. “We’re expecting an early and likely sharp start to the flu season,” she stated. Last year, California experienced one of its worst flu seasons in recent history, and this year’s combination of factors could lead to similarly troubling outcomes.
A new strain, known as the H3N2 subclade K, has emerged late in the summer, complicating matters for health officials. The timing of this mutation is problematic because it occurred after decisions were made regarding the formulation of the fall flu vaccine, which is typically finalized in February. “It looks like a bit of a mismatch between the seasonal flu vaccine strains and the new subvariant,” Hudson noted.
This mismatch raises concerns about the vaccine’s effectiveness. While it remains uncertain how much the effectiveness of this year’s flu shot will be impacted, data from the British government indicates that vaccinated children are 70% to 75% less likely to require hospitalization, while vaccinated adults face a 30% to 40% lower risk. Although flu vaccine effectiveness generally varies between 30% and 60%, it tends to be more robust in younger populations.
The Los Angeles County Department of Public Health has urged residents to get vaccinated, especially as the holiday season approaches. “Public Health strongly encourages everyone who has not received the flu vaccine yet this year to receive it now, especially before gathering with loved ones during the holidays,” the department stated. Despite the potential for mismatched vaccines, experts emphasize that the flu vaccine still offers significant protection against severe illness and hospitalizations.
As flu cases rise in countries like Japan and the United Kingdom, California is closely monitoring the situation. Japan recently issued a national alert as flu cases surged, particularly affecting children and the elderly. Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious disease expert at UC San Francisco, remarked, “From what we see in the U.K. and Japan, a lot more people are getting flu earlier.”
Australia has also set alarming precedents this flu season, with over 410,000 lab-confirmed cases reported, surpassing the previous record of 365,000. This has prompted health officials to call for increased vaccination efforts. In Australia, vaccination rates have declined, with only 25.7% of children aged six months to five years vaccinated this year, the lowest since 2021.
In the United States, vaccination rates are also concerning. Preliminary data indicates that only 49.2% of children had received a flu shot by late April, down from 53.4% the previous year. Among adults, 46.7% had been vaccinated, slightly lower than the previous season. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has pointed out that vaccination coverage has not rebounded to pre-pandemic levels, a trend that has been exacerbated by vaccine skepticism.
Health officials are particularly worried about the young and elderly populations. Hudson warned that “those are the kids that are the most vulnerable if they get any kind of a respiratory illness. It can really go badly for them.” Effective antiviral medications, such as Tamiflu, may be crucial this year, especially for those who are already vaccinated but still contract the virus.
As flu season approaches, experts advise that maintaining good hygiene practices, staying away from sick individuals, and wearing masks in crowded indoor spaces can provide additional protection. There are also now at-home flu testing kits available, allowing individuals to diagnose flu symptoms more quickly.
With the flu’s resurgence in other nations as a cautionary tale, California health officials are preparing for a challenging season ahead. As Chin-Hong summarized, “We have to brace ourselves for another year of more cases of flu.” Public health authorities are emphasizing the importance of vaccination and early treatment to mitigate the potential impacts of this year’s flu season.