BREAKING: Bitcoin (BTC) is set to soar to a new all-time high in 2026, according to a just released analysis by Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan. This forecast disrupts Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle, indicating a significant shift in market dynamics.
In a note published on Monday, Hougan emphasized that weakening forces that previously dictated Bitcoin’s cycles, including the Bitcoin halving and interest rate pressures, are no longer as influential. Instead, growing institutional interest and regulatory clarity are expected to drive prices higher in 2026.
As new capital floods the market, particularly through institutional investment in Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), the momentum is anticipated to accelerate. Notably, Bank of America has recently allowed its advisors to recommend Bitcoin ETFs, potentially channeling parts of its massive $3.5 trillion in client assets into the cryptocurrency market.
Hougan predicts Bitcoin will experience lower volatility than major stocks like Nvidia while also showcasing a modest correlation with the stock market. Bitcoin is currently trading near $87,000, slightly down by 1% as of Wednesday.
This paradigm shift comes as historical trends suggested that 2026 would typically be a pullback year for Bitcoin, following the most recent halving in April 2024. However, Hougan argues that the structural dynamics in play now are fundamentally different, with institutional capital entering the market in waves.
“In our view, the forces that previously drove four-year cycles are significantly weaker than they’ve been in past cycles,”
Hougan stated. He points to a positive outlook on interest rates, contrasting with the tightening periods of 2018 and 2022 that pressured digital assets.
Furthermore, the research arm of asset manager Grayscale echoes this analysis, projecting that Bitcoin will set new records in early 2026. Their research highlights macroeconomic demand for alternative stores of value as crucial, particularly amid rising public debt and improving regulatory frameworks.
As the crypto landscape evolves, expectations indicate that Bitcoin’s volatility will continue to decline. Over the past decade, Bitcoin has shown less volatility than Nvidia, a trend analysts believe will persist into the new year.
Moreover, the correlation between Bitcoin and stocks is expected to diminish in 2026 as regulatory advancements and institutional adoption push Bitcoin prices higher, even as equities may struggle. Throughout 2025, Bitcoin maintained a strong correlation with the NASDAQ-100 index, which has recently shifted as prices decline.
As the cryptocurrency market gears up for this potential surge, investors and analysts alike are closely monitoring these developments. The upcoming months will be critical as institutions ramp up their allocations and more regulatory clarity emerges.
This news is generating significant buzz across financial circles, and with institutional interest on the rise, the landscape for Bitcoin in 2026 is shaping up to be transformative. As we move closer to 2026, all eyes will be on how these trends unfold and what it means for investors worldwide.