The 98th Academy Awards, scheduled for March 15, 2024, are generating significant interest among bettors, with predictions indicating that the film “Sinners” may take home four Oscars. Following closely behind, both “One Battle After Another” and “Frankenstein” are projected to win three awards each. This year’s ceremony, hosted by Conan O’Brien, will be broadcast live on ABC and Hulu.
Since the nominees were revealed on January 22, platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have seen tens of millions of dollars wagered on the outcomes across each of the Academy’s 24 categories. The rise of prediction markets has captivated not only bettors but also media outlets, state regulators, and lawmakers in Washington. A recent partnership between Polymarket and the Golden Globes demonstrated the potential of these platforms, where bettors successfully predicted 26 out of 28 winners.
As the Oscars approach, the odds are shifting, particularly in key categories. Here’s a closer look at the current predictions based on betting trends.
Key Categories and Predictions
In the race for Best Picture, “One Battle After Another” is the frontrunner, boasting a 67% chance of winning according to bettors on both platforms. Following it is “Sinners,” with an estimated 24% chance. The Best Picture category has attracted over $10 million in total wagers, underscoring its significance.
When it comes to Best Director, Paul Thomas Anderson is viewed as the clear favorite for his work on “One Battle After Another,” with odds in the mid-to-high 80s.
In acting categories, Timothée Chalamet is positioned to win Best Actor for his role in “Marty Supreme,” with odds around 75%. Meanwhile, Jessie Buckley, the lead in “Hamnet,” is projected to win Best Actress with a remarkable 88-89% chance.
For technical categories, “Sinners” is favored to win Best Cinematography, with a 66% chance. In Best Production Design, “Frankenstein” leads with over 80% odds.
Additional Insights on the Awards
Other notable predictions include “F1,” which is favored to win Best Sound with an estimated 80% chance. The Best Animated Short Film category is more competitive; “Butterfly” has a 40% chance, closely followed by “The Girl Who Cried Pearls.”
For Best Original Score, “Sinners” maintains a strong position, with bettors giving it an 85% chance of winning. In the Best Original Song category, the track “Golden” from “KPop Demon Hunters” is positioned as the favorite, with similar odds.
The Best Supporting Actor category sees Stellan Skarsgård leading for his role in “Sentimental Value,” with a 64% chance. In contrast, Teyana Taylor is the favorite for Best Supporting Actress with around 75% odds.
In the visual effects category, “Avatar: Fire and Ash,” directed by James Cameron, is almost certain to win, boasting over a 90% chance. The Best Documentary Feature award looks to favor “The Perfect Neighbor,” with a predicted 68% chance of winning.
As the Oscars draw closer, the landscape of predictions remains dynamic. Bettors are eagerly anticipating the announcement of the winners across these prestigious categories, with some films clearly standing out as frontrunners. The results will not only determine the accolades for filmmakers and artists but also highlight trends within the film industry and the growing influence of prediction markets.